RISK, UNCERTAINTY AND FORECASTING

2nd IUSS-IMT Workshop on the Philosophy of Science

PROGRAMME

Day 1 – November 3rd, 2026

12:00-14:00 — Lunch

First Session — Aula 1.17 (Palazzo del Broletto, 15 – 1st floor)

14:00–14:40 Piero Avitabile (IMT Lucca) — Higher-Order Evidence in Scientific Argumentation
14:40–15:20 Martina Calderisi, Davide Coraci & Luca Zanetti (IUSS Pavia) — Trust, truthlikeness, and the accuracy-informativeness trade-off
15:20–15:40 Coffee break
15:40–16:20 Alessandro Demichelis (IMT Lucca) — Recasting the story of Semmelweiss
16:20–17:00 Pavel Janda (IUSS Pavia) — Fat and Dismal
17:00–17:40 Margherita Bianchetti (IMT Lucca) — Repertoires and Bayesian Cognitive Science

20:00 Social dinner

Day 2 – November 4th, 2026

Second Session — Sala Riunioni (Palazzo del Broletto, 15 – 2nd floor)

10:00–10:40 Francesco Di Betta (IUSS Pavia) & Matteo Michelini (CNR Genova) — Peer Disagreement and the Structure of Expertise
10:40–11:20 Gustavo Cevolani (IMT Lucca) — Reading the Past: Bayesian Inference in Textual Criticism
11:20–11:40 Coffee break
11:40–12:20 Matteo De Benedetto (IMT Lucca) — Waismann’s patchwork-contextualism about knowledge
12:20–13:00 Michael Morreau (UiT Norway) — Voting vs. discussing in search of the truth: a lesson from avalanche-danger forecasting in Switzerland

13:00 Lunch

Information and registration: davide.coraci@iusspavia.it, luca.zanetti@iusspavia.it

Funded by: FIS-2023-01696 – Severe Uncertainty: Decisions, Evidence and Probability (DeEP)
PI: Dr Luca Zanetti — CUP: I53C25000600001